This map sums up all of the areas of vulnerability to a potential new wave of financial instability: financial sector and macroeconomic stability, current account balance, bilateral trade linkages with the vulnerable Eurozone (PIGSA) countries, exposure by way of foreign owned banks, and remittances vulnerability. The countries with the highest risk of economic and financial instability stemming from potential contagion from the Eurozone are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. 
 

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This map shows countries’ reliance on and vulnerability to changes in remittances from citizens working outside the country. When economic conditions are stressed, remittances often dry up and cause hardships to reliant family members back home. The countries in Southeast Europe and Eurasia which are most exposed in terms of remittances are Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

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Many of the largest banks in Southeast Europe and, to a lesser extent, Eurasia are owned by foreign banks. Particularly in SEE, the foreign parent banks are almost exclusively from the Eurozone, where banking and economic conditions are under strain. The countries in Southeast Europe and Eurasia with the greatest exposure to foreign parent banks are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Albania.

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This map shows the countries in Southeast Europe and Eurasia that have large trade linkages with the vulnerable countries in the Eurozone: * Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, and Austria. The countries that are most exposed to a general slowdown in trade with the vulnerable Eurozone countries are Albania, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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Countries with large current account deficits are vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and would be hard hit by another wave of potential financial instability. Kosovo, Montenegro and Georgia are the most vulnerable.

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The countries in Southeast Europe and Eurasia with the most unstable macroeconomic and financial sectors (based upon PFS’ financial sector benchmarking methodology) are shown on the map.
The most vulnerable countries are Georgia, Montenegro and Serbia.

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